I have been playing Wordle for a while, starting about 100 days after it first started. Like a lot of people I wanted to try to solve it in as few guesses as possible which meant having a good starting word. Early on, I found sources that said the best word to start with was CRATE. I put together some of my own statistics by playing older games on the Wordle archive and also seeing how I did with different starting words. The most common letters appearing in Wordle are, in order, E, A, R, O, and T (the next 5 are L, I, S, N, and C) so I decided the best starting word would be ORATE, which uses all 5 of the top letters. At some point, the New York Times bought Wordle and started running it, and since I already had a New York Times games subscription (mostly to play Spelling Bee), I was able to use their Wordlebot analyzer that analyzes how skillful and lucky your guesses are and tells you things like how many likely words are remaining. It does this after you finish the puzzle, so it isn’t cheating. Wordlebot’s current preferred starting word is LEAST which it assigns a skill level of 99. But my own statistics also look at which letters are most commonly placed where and I came up with this table, based on Wordle answers 1 through 465:
Continue reading “Wordle 505 2/6*”
Biggest Lottery Jackpot?
Nobody has won the Powerball lottery in a while and the jackpot has now risen to $1.6 billion, the biggest jackpot in history. In 2013, I wrote about how to calculate whether the odds were in your favor to play the lottery. It almost never is, but because money from past weeks accumulates, it is possible at least. It is made especially challenging if you take into account the taxes you will pay on the winnings, which will be taxed at the maximum rate of 37% federal and 5.75% for Georgia state income tax. When I ran through the calculations last, I figured the Powerball jackpot break even jackpot would need to be $1.65 billion. That was then. The lottery really inflates the value of the jackpot by adding together all of the payments over 30 years. Using time value of money calculations, the “present value” is much less. And they skew it even further by using a graduated payment where you get paid more as time goes, putting more of your payments further into the future and making the present value even less. So for the last big jackpot in January 2016, the cash value of the jackpot was only 62% of the total jackpot. But tonight’s jackpot of $1.6 billion has a cash value of only $782 million or about 49% of the advertised jackpot. I don’t know when they went to the graduated payments, but a big difference this time around is that interest rates are higher. The lottery sets aside some amount of each ticket sale to fund the big prize. The money they collect plus whatever they got in past jackpots that went unwon is the cash value of the jackpot. Then they calculate a total jackpot by doing some time value of money calculations and figuring that money that sits in their savings account will earn a certain amount of interest until it needs to be paid to the winner. Just like a savings account with a higher interest rate will leave you with more money in the future, the higher interest rates means they can pay out a lot more in the future than they can now even if they start with the same amount of money. So tonight’s record-breaking jackpot of $1.6 billion beats out the January 2016 jackpot of $1.59 billion dollars, but back then the cash value of the jackpot was $983 million, way more than the $782 million at stake tonight.
When I run through my calculations to determine a break even jackpot, I always use the cash value, so that I can compare today’s $2 ticket price to today’s cash prize. Back in 2016, the break even advertised jackpot was just over $1.6 billion. But with higher interest rates and the graduated payout scheme, the break even jackpot today is a staggering $2.2 billion, even though the odds of winning have not changed. So I am sitting this one out.
Donor Advised Fund
I have been thinking about how to write my will and handle my estate. Once the estate pays off all of its bills, a lot of the remaining money will go to different charities I have supported over the years. However some of the money is in my deferred compensation account and another chunk is in an IRA that was converted from my old 401k account. I never paid any income taxes on the contributions to those two accounts and the idea is that when I need the money and withdraw it, I will pay taxes on it as ordinary income (including the gains). If I die, whoever gets the remaining money would be able to keep the money in the account for a little while maybe, but eventually would have to withdraw it and pay income taxes on it. My regular investments and my Roth IRA do not work this way. No taxes would be due and the cost basis of the investments is adjusted to whatever the value would be on the day I died. So investment assets can be inherited without any taxes being due, but not 401k’s and conventional IRA’s.
Continue reading “Donor Advised Fund”
Raising the Flag
On the morning of September 14, 1814, after a day and night of constant shelling by the British at Fort McHenry, the American defenders raised the biggest flag they had over the fort to show the British and the people of Baltimore that they still controlled the fort. Unable to take the fort, the British withdrew. Upon seeing the flag in position that morning, Francis Scott Key started a poem that would become the lyrics to the national anthem of the United States. One day and 208 years later, I visited. It just so happened I got there right at 10 AM, which is when they raise the flag and I got to help out the guy, Roy, who usually does this. Even though there were no British around and we used a much smaller flag, it was still pretty cool. The good thing is we had zero casualties.
We started with the folded up flag, which I got to hold all by myself, and then I unfolded it while Roy held the other end.
Girod Street Cemetery
About five years ago I found out about Girod Street Cemetery in New Orleans. It was the first mainly Protestant cemetery in mostly Catholic New Orleans, started in 1822 by the Episcopal church which eventually became Christ Church Cathedral. The Wikipedia article about the cemetery has some great history, much of which seems chaotic. In 1833 there was a big cholera outbreak in New Orleans and the cemetery became a dumping ground for bodies. It was a mixed race cemetery, so there were tons of graves of black people, slaves, and former slaves. Because it was New Orleans with its high water table and frequent flooding, the graves were above ground, sometimes in structures six tombs high. Over time the cemetery suffered from neglect and by the 1940’s was in really bad shape, at which time it was decided to close the cemetery and redevelop the land. Families were asked to make arrangements to move the remains of their relatives, but I don’t know how many people did that. Ultimately a contract was awarded to another cemetery to haul everybody off and rebury them, but very little provision seems to have been made for preserving tombstones or keeping everyone straight. In 1957, just before the cemetery was finally closed, a Life magazine photographer took a bunch of eerie and horrific pictures of overgrown graves, broken into, with coffins spilling out. Google has a lot of those photos in a collection that allows you to start a slideshow of about fifty pictures. There is also a great blog page with some of those pictures and more history that is definitely worth seeing. I don’t think the photos were ever published in the magazine.
