Goat Herder Bet

You're in a game show.

The Host tells you that behind one of the three door before you is a new car. Behind the other two is each a goat.

He tells you to pick a door. You pick one.

The host (who knows what is behind the doors) goes to one of the doors you did not pick and reveals a goat.

He then gives you the chance to stick with your pick, or to switch to the other unopened door.

What should you do?

Though this may seem like a 50/50 decision, it is not. There is a 2/3 chance that the other door has a car behind it. So, you should switch.

Why? Because I won the bet. Phil Brown and Don Voshall, Director of R&D and Executive Vice President, said that I was a goat herder if I believed it wasn't a 50/50 choice. And they kept saying I was crazy until they set up the game show in the lab, started playing 100 times, quit at turn 21 to realize that I was right.

Phil has paid me his $10, but Don wants to go double or nothing. Something about suspending 12 nails from a wine bottle with a nail and cork in it.

There's a 2/3 chance that I will win the double or nothing puzzle. If the answer is on the next card [HyperCard... now below], then there's a 100% chance!

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Is either one of these a legal solution to Don's puzzle? Depends on the word "suspend" and whether the bottle can be disturbed.

[See: Answer]